Which Octopus Tariff Should I Choose for Winter?

After a successful summer on Octopus Flux, I’m facing a familiar autumn question: should I stay where I am or change tariffs for winter?

My home has solar panels, battery storage, a heat pump and two electric cars. That combination gives me flexibility, but it also means there’s more to consider than the cheapest overnight rate. I need to think about what I buy, what I export and how the whole system behaves when the sunshine becomes less reliable.

As I record this update in late September 2026, I haven’t made the decision. Here’s what I’m weighing up.

Why summer’s strategy needs another look

Over summer, I’ve been letting solar charge the batteries and targeting exports at the more valuable evening period on my Flux arrangement. I’ve avoided routinely charging the batteries from the grid, leaving room for the following day’s generation.

That has worked well. But cloudy days are already making exports less predictable. If tomorrow’s forecast is poor, emptying the battery this evening could leave me buying back electricity to run the house.

Last January, we imported around 1.5 MWh in a month. That included charging both cars and running the heat pump through cold weather. Those winter demands matter far more to this decision than a particularly good summer day.

The options I’m considering

Staying on Flux would let me see how the same tariff performs across the seasons. It would also avoid another switch now. The question is whether that simplicity would cost me more during the months when imports dominate.

Returning to Intelligent Go is the familiar alternative. My previous approach involved charging the batteries from the grid and charging the cars in cheaper periods, then exporting whatever surplus remained. Looking at last winter’s figures, though, there wasn’t much export in the darkest months. The import side therefore deserves close attention.

I’m also considering the Outgoing Agile export option discussed in the video. The attraction is being able to target particularly valuable export periods. My hesitation is the management involved. I would want to understand how much extra value that approach might deliver and how much automation it would need.

Cosy is another possibility because of the heat pump. The idea I discuss is using its cheaper periods to replenish the batteries, then letting them support the house between those periods. I’m not yet convinced it would improve my overall result.

Any comparison also needs to include the terms attached to a switch, including any applicable exit fee. A saving over winter becomes less attractive if moving again in spring absorbs a chunk of it.

What I’m actually trying to achieve

My goal is to reach 31 December with a net £0 energy bill: enough earnings to cover what I’ve spent on energy across the year.

In the dashboard shown in this update, I’m around £248 in credit. That’s encouraging, but winter still lies ahead. I also discuss the contribution from Axel Energy, so the improved position cannot simply be credited to a tariff change alone.

The useful question is which arrangement gives my particular home the best chance of holding on to that progress through winter.

Help me choose

You can explore the figures in my Energy Bills Dashboard and see the generation history in my Solar Generation Dashboard. I also mention Tim and Kats Green Walk Tariff Tool in the video as a way to explore a household’s own circumstances.

For now, I’m keeping the decision open. With this combination of solar, batteries, a heat pump and two EVs, which import and export approach would you choose—and what would make you switch?

Watch the full video: https://youtu.be/VCBAJBGGuzI

Energy Bills Dashboard: https://www.jonathantracey.com/import-export

Solar Generation Dashboard: https://www.jonathantracey.com/solar-generation

Tim and Kats Green Walk Tariff Tool: https://timandkatsgreenwalk.co.uk/